蒙特卡洛法在煤层气目标区储量计算中的应用

Monte-Carlo Method Application in Reserves Calculation of Coal Bed Methane Prospects

中国煤层气目标区的排序优选工作是编制勘探规划、进行投资决策的重要基础,而煤层气目标区储量是该项工作中的一项十分重要的指标。含气量法是适合计算煤层气目标区储量的有效方法,但是由于中国煤层气处于勘探开发早期,可利用的数据相对较少,因此,传统的含气量法很难满足实际需要。本文详细论述了蒙特卡洛法的在煤层气目标区储量计算中的使用原理、分析流程以及参数选取办法,并结合某煤层气目标区数据进行了应用试算分析。结果表明,蒙特卡洛法更具有概率论的理论基础,使煤层气目标区储量计算更为科学合理,计算结果更具有指导意义。

The ranking and optimal selection work of chinese coal bed methane （CBM） prospects is an important basis for exploretion ＆ development plans and investment decision- makings, and of which the CBM prospect＇ reserve is a critical index. The gas content method is suitable for reserves calculation of CBM prospects. But there are comparatively less data which can be used for this method, since Chinese CBM exploration ＆ development activities are at early stage, so this method cannot meet the practical demand thoroughly. This paper introduced the principle, analysis process and parameter- selection of the Monte- Carlo method application in reserves calculation of CBM prospects, and carried out an example analysis using real data of a CBM prospect in China. The outcome shows that the Monte- Carlo method which is based on the probability theory can make reserves calculation of CBM prospects more scientific and reserves results more meaningful.