二元经济体中的劳动力转移问题——基于中国经济增长的理论与实证分析

Labor Migration in a Dual Economy——Theoretical and Empirical Analysis Based on China's Economic Growth

农村劳动力大量向城市现代部门转移是支撑中国经济增长的一个重要因素,本文基于Harris-Tod-aro模型的框架基础之上,分析了工资率差异,生产规模差异,以及城乡部门生产力水平即全要素生产率对二元经济体中农村剩余劳动力向城市部门转移的影响机制。并结合中国近十年间的宏观数据对模型的分析结果进行了相关的度量并发现:相对于城市部门,中国农村部门生产力水平的发展还很滞后,而为了进一步释放农村的剩余劳动力,推动中国的工业化和城市化进程,提高农村部门劳动生产率是唯一的可持续性途径。

Rural labor migration to modem sector in urban areas is considered to be a crucial mechanism to sustain China＇s economic development. Based on Harris-Todaro model, the paper analyzes the influences on labor migration caused by wage differences, production scale differences and total factor productivity differences in a dual economy. Besides, the paper calibrates the model with China＇s macroeconomic statistics in recent ten years and finds out that compared with unban sector in China, productivity in rural sector lags far behind. The only sustainable way to further liberate rural surplus labor and to accelerate the China＇s industrialization and urbanization is to raise labor productivity in rural sector.