摘要
通过对1994年以来中国货币政策目标、货币供给以及外汇储备等几个指标的协整检验和向量误差修正模型分析,本文认为双顺差条件下,货币供给内生性加强,货币政策虽然短期有效,但有效性程度不高,长期货币政策基本无效。鉴此,应防止热钱冲击、进一步放宽人民币汇率的波动幅度、改善汇率形成机制、加快利率市场化进程,以提高货币政策有效性。
In this paper we use the co-integration test and vector error correction model with several indicators by 1994 such as China＇s monetary policy goals, the money supply and foreign exchange reserves. Money supply endogencity was strengthened under two surpluses. We proved the monetary policy is effective in short term, but the valid degree is not high, and it is invalid basically in long term. In view of this, in order to enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy, we should prevent the hot money shocks, further relaxation of the RMB exchange rate fluctuations, improve exchange rate mechanism, speed up the process of market-oriented interest rate and so on.
出处
《南京财经大学学报》
2009年第3期16-19,共4页
Journal of Nanjing University of Finance and Economics
关键词
货币政策
双顺差
汇率
VEC模型
monetary policy
two surpluses
exchange rate
VEC model
