基于AHP及Logit回归的新能源汽车市场预测模型

Market Forecasting Modeling Study for New Energy Vehicle Based on AHP and Logit Regression

根据消费者效用极大化原理,利用层次分析法,分析中国消费者购买新能源汽车的成本、可靠性、动力性、形象、安全性和便利性因素的权重;通过对欧、美、日新能源汽车乘用车市场份额与消费者效用的Logit回归分析,构建基本、一般和激进三种政府规制场景下的中国新能源汽车乘用车市场份额的预测模型.结果表明,新能源汽车市场的发展与政府规制有密切的关系.到2015年,在基本、一般和激进三种场景下,新能源汽车分别占14%,23%,36%左右;混合动力和纯电动汽车是市场份额最大的两种车型;燃料电池汽车市场份额最小,为0.25%~0.85%.

According to China consumer purchase behavior and utility maximum, AHP method is used to analyze the weight of each main decision factors such as cost, reliability, dynamic performance, image, safety and conveniences. China NEV market share forecasting model is established based on logit regression analysis between USA, Europe and Japan NEV market share and customer utility. The forecasting model studies three different government regulation scenarios： basic scenario, general scenario and radical scenario. The results of the model indicate that government regulations have obvious impact on NEV market performance. In 2015, NEV is expected to account for 14% market share under basic scenario, 23% under general scenario and 36% under radical scenario. Hybrid Energy Vehicle and Battery Energy Vehicle take account of the biggest market share under three scenarios, Fuel Cell Vehicle accounts for the least market share through 0.25% to 0.85% under the three scenarios.