基于重度老龄化始点——2030对社会经济影响的研究

On the beginning of serious aging research of 2030’s influence on social economy

文章基于2030老龄化态势,细致分析了老龄化升级对社会经济发展将产生的直接而重大的影响,包括经济劳动力参与率的降低、养老模式由家庭养老向社会养老转变、社会保障体系中养老金及医疗保健费用以及社会需求结构与消费模式、储蓄率变化等方面内容。2030时点对于老龄化有重要的警示意义,不仅标识我国由加速老龄化升入重度老龄化,而且它的客观存在将深刻记录我国人口类型的彻底转变。

This article firstly is based on the situation of the aging in 2030, and then supplies the detailed analysis on the upgrade of the aging which will have a direct and significant impact on the socio-economic development. The content includes the lower economic labor force participation rate , the changing of the pension model from home model to social endowment , social security pension system and health care costs and the change about the structure of social needs and consumption patterns and saving rate. This point 2030 in the aging has the important significance of warning, which not only marks this accelerating from the sec ondary aging of China to the severe aging, but also records the thorough change the type of population of China in terms of its objective existence.