困境与协调:探析中俄能源合作的博弈——以俄远东输油项目为例

Difficulties and Compromise:Analysis on the Game of Sino-Russian Energy Cooperation——A Case Study of Russia's Pipeline Project in the Far East

2009年2月17日,被称为"贷款换石油"的中俄大型输油项目终于敲定。这标志着两国间长达15年的石油博弈终于突破了重重困境,有了一个较为完满的结局。回首中俄两国15年间围绕远东石油资源所进行的一系列博弈,每一轮谈判都是一场事关国家利益的针锋相对,每一份协议的签订都体现了双方寻求双赢的妥协。本文将从博弈论的视角,以俄远东输油项目为例,从输油管线之争及石油定价机制谈判等几个方面,对中俄能源合作进行系统的梳理,提炼双方博弈策略的精髓,发掘竞争背后蕴藏的合作因素。并以此为依据,提出今后中俄能源合作的走向依旧是"博弈—困境—协调"模式。

On February 17, 2009, known as ＂loans-for-oil＂ large-scale Sino-Russian pipeline project has been determined. This marks the 15-year petroleum game has finally broken through various difficulties and has gained a good result. Looking back to the Sino-Russian games for petroleum resources during the past 15 years, each round negotiation is an issue of national interests against each other, each agreement reflects the negotiation of the two sides to seek win-win compromise. This article will collate the Sino-Russian energy cooperation systematically from a perspective of game theory and make a case study of Russia＇s Pipeline Project in the Far East. The main content includes dispute over oil pipelines, oil pricing mechanisms and other aspects of negotiation. This article tries to extract the essence of game strategy and explore cooperative factors behind competition. Meanwhile, based on this, the author has pointed out the future direction of Sino-Russian energy cooperation is still a ＂game - dilemma - coordination＂ mode.