美国气候变化政策对未来中美能源合作的潜在影响

Potential impact of U.S. climate policy on Sino-U.S. energy cooperation in future

作为世界上能源消费量及温室气体排放量最大的两个国家,中美两国对世界的能源发展和应对气候变化进程都发挥着重要影响。同时,作为世界上最大的发达国家和发展中国家,中美两国在技术、贸易等多个领域具有很强的互补性,在能源和气候变化等领域具有非常广阔的合作前景。奥巴马政府采取的相对积极的气候变化政策将对未来中美能源合作产生重大影响,两国既在某些领域存在明显的相互竞争,又在一些领域具有很大的合作空间。中美除了在洁净煤技术和煤层气开发等领域开展能源合作以外,在节能、提高能源效率、开发可再生能源、核能、潜在技术等领域以及在相关标准、政策和经济激励机制等方面都具有合作潜力。中美两国国内能源供应不足,都难以承受能源危机或持续高油价的影响,过去双方在能源领域一直存在零和与非零和的博弈,而美国气候变化政策的改变也将对这种博弈产生影响。

As the two countries with the largest energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions in the world,U.S.and China have been playing important roles in the process of the world's energy development and climate change response.Meanwhile,as the largest developed country and the largest developing country,they complement each other strongly in such fields as technology,trading,etc.,and are broadly co-operative in energy and climate change and so on.With the adoption of positive climate policy by Obama's administration,great impacts on Sino-U.S.cooperation in energy will occur.Although the two countries are obviously competitive in some fields,they could do more in other fields when they cooperate,such as clean coal technology,coalbed methane development,and maybe also in energy saving,energy efficiency raising,development of renewable energy,nuclear energy,potential technology,even the standards,policy and economy stimulus mechanism in such fields.Both countries short of domestic energy supply will suffer from the energy crisis or the sustaining high oil price.There used to be a zero-sum game between the two countries,which will be affected by the renewed U.S.Climate Policy.