贸易政策的制度质量分析——基于制度稳定性视角的研究评述

Institutional Quality Analysis of Trade Policy:A Literature Review Based on Institutional Stability

贸易政策的制度质量分析框架除了包括制度有效性分析,还应当包括制度稳定性分析。贸易制度稳定性的重要性在于,它既是经济长期增长的需要,更是贸易制度变迁进入"梯形"上升演进通道的必要条件。贸易制度稳定性均衡主要取决于利益集团、政治风险、理性预期及政策承诺,而它又会通过投资、贸易、经济改革等渠道间接地影响贸易发展和经济增长。因此,努力构建包括制度稳定性在内的符合中国特色的贸易制度质量分析体系,用以指导探索我国贸易制度发展的路径依赖、质量提升和体系构建等一系列问题,将是后续研究的一个重要方向。

The institutional quality analytical framework of trade policy should consist of not only the analysis of institutional effectiveness but also the analysis of institutional stability.The importance of trade institutional stability lies that it is needed by long-run economic growth,and what's more,it is the necessary condition of for the trade institutional change to enter the ladder type ascending evolution channel.The equilibrium of trade institutional stability mainly depends on interest group,political risk,rational expectations and policy commitment.It will indirectly influence the trade development and economic growth through the channel of investment,trade,economic reform etc.So we should spare no pains to construct the institutional quality analytic system with Chinese characteristics,which includes the policy stability,to guide China's trade institution development,which includes a variety of problems like its path dependence,quality promotion and system construction.And this will be an important direction for follow-up study.