2012年前天津市教育规模预测

Prediction of Tianjin Educational Scale Before 2012

未来五年是天津发展的关键期。在这一时期内,天津的经济将以快速增长的方式发展,经济结构也将不断调整和升级。以知识集约为特点的现代服务业将在产业结构中占据重要位置,而天津的产业构成也将呈现以现代服务业和先进制造业为主导的"三、二、一"格局。结合这一发展态势,天津的教育应该在人才、科技和智力资源上提供支撑。运用分位数回归、线性回归、灰色预测、指数平滑以及主成分分析和因子分析法对天津市未来几年人才需求和教育规模作了预测。

The future five years are the critical periods for the development of Tianjin.In this period of time,the economy of Tianjin will grow rapidly and the economic structure will be adjusted and upgraded constantly.Modern service industry with knowledge-intensified characteristics will hold an important place in industrial structure.The industrial composition of Tianjin will present the pattern of ＂three、two、one＂ dominated by modern service and advanced manufacturing industry.Therefore,education of Tianjin should provide support in the resources of talents, science and technology, and intelligence. This paper predicts the demand for talents and the educational scale in future years of Tianjin by using methods of quantile regression, linear regression, grey prediction, exponential smoothing, princi- pal component analysis and factor analysis