黑龙江鸡西地区热量资源变化趋势研究

Study on the Trend of Heat Resources Changes in Jixi Area of Heilongjiang

[目的]分析黑龙江鸡西地区热量资源的变化趋势,有助于资源开发利用和灾害预测,为该地区农业可持续发展提供依据。[方法]依照基准年和年度分段,采用一元线性回归、渐近线解析出热量增减幅度。[结果]鸡西地区58年年平均气温升高1.7℃,1982年是气温升高的"拐点"。稳定通过≥10℃的初日、终日、间隔日数、积温历年变化趋势基本一致;初日提前5 d,终日延后6 d,间隔日数延长11 d,∑T≥10℃积温增加290℃。近30年升温趋势明显。[结论]气温升高,积温增加,热量资源增多,可改变植物种群的构成,提高作物生物产量;同时,也给病虫越冬提供了生存条件,界限北移。利弊共存。

[ Objective ] To analyze the trend of energy resources change, contributed to the development and utilization of resources and disas- ter prediction, and provided a basis for sustainable agricultural development. [ Method] In accordance with the base year and the annual seg- ment, using a linear regression, analytic asymptote increase or decrease in the heat. [ Result ] Annual average temperature raised 1.7 ℃ in Jixi of 58 a , 1982 was ＂inflection point＂ of temperature raising≥10℃ stable through the fast days, last day, interval days, the accumulated temperature changes over the years had basically the same trend; the first days in advance 5 d, the last day delayed 6 d, interval days pro- longed 11 d, ∑T≥10℃ accumulated temperature increased 290 ℃. Recent wanning trend was obviously in recently 30 a. [ Conclusion] The temperature, accumulated temperature increase, increase in heat resources, which can change the composition of plant populations, in- crease crop yield; provide the living conditions for worms overwintefing at the same time, the boundaries northward moved. There were both advantages and disadvantages.