论后危机时代的国际货币体系——解读“美国式危机”

On the International Monetary System in Post-crisis Times——An Interpretation of "American-type Crisis"

"美国式危机"是美国凭借美元强势地位所误导的流动性管理的破产。目前美国式危机与东亚金融危机的重要原因均在于以美元为核心的国际货币体系缺陷,相应的调整涵盖世界货币格局变动与区域货币合作两个层次。IMF政策失败的根源在于其治理结构,尤其表现为美国所特有的否决权,改革的首要议题是促进IMF的民主治理。对美元强势地位引发全球危机的终极治理是形成具有排他性的统一世界货币,现今能够期待的则是以超主权储备资产替代美元。区域货币合作、持有适当规模与结构的储备资产和改革金融结构可在一定范围规避汇率风险。人民币国际化已成趋势,但是必须维护经济持续快速成长,调整国内经济结构以有效吸收外部冲击,适时拓展中国银行体系的国际化进程,探索在国际市场发行人民币计值金融工具,实现人民币可自由兑换。

＂American-style crisis＂ means bankruptcy of administration of monetary mobility misled by the strong position of American dollars. In other words, it is those defects in the international monetary system centered by American dollars that gave rise to the present crisis and East Asian Monetary Crisis. To improve the status quo, the first issue to reform the current system is to promote a democratic governance of the IMF so as to substitute su- per-sovereignty property reserve for the strong-positioned American dollars. Next, cooperation between regional cur- rencies, holding a proper scale and structure of reserved property, and reformation of monetary structure may help evade ratio risk to a considerable degree. Moreover, the internationalization of RMB tends to be more and more ac- ceptable. However, to actualize free exchange of RMB and deliver RMB as a means of monetary value in the world market, a rapid economic increase is to be maintained and domestic economic structure is to be adjusted to effec- tively external attack, appropriately extend the course of internationalization of the system of China banks.