外汇市场压力下中国货币政策效果的实证分析

An Analysis of the Effect of the Monetary Policy of China under the Exchange Market Pressure

对中国外汇市场压力(Exchange Market Pressure,EMP)、国内货币供给、利率、经济增长之间的相互关系进行分析表明:为应对外汇占款增加而导致的通货膨胀压力,货币当局的货币政策是紧缩性的。但是,紧缩性的货币政策又会引起EMP增大。因此,紧缩的货币政策对通货膨胀的抑制效果只能是短期性的。此外,货币供给对经济增长有显著影响,利率变化对经济增长及资金流动的信号作用已经比较明显。在美国金融危机的背景下,国内通货膨胀压力的基本消除为解决中国长期以来面临的货币政策困境提供了契机。

This paper follows the tradition of investigating the interactions between Chinese exchange market pressure （EMP）, domestic supply of money, interest rate and output growth. In response to the inflation caused by the increased international reserves, the monetary authority tightened the monetary policies. However, the tight monetary policies would cause additional EMP. Therefore, the effects of the tight monetary policies can survive only within a short-tenn. In addition, the supply of money does affect the economy, and the interest rate plays an important role in the economic growth and capital flows. Under the background of American financial crisis, the relief of inflation pressure gives an opportunity to resolve the dilemma of China＇ s monetary policy.