东亚货币一体化的国际风险分担机制分析——基于第二代最优货币区理论的拓展

A Research on the International Risk-sharing Mechanism of Monetary Integration in East Asia:A Development Based on the Second Generation of the Theory of Optimal Currency Areas

在经济全球化的背景下,区域货币一体化对于区域内各国的经济发展有着重要意义。当前的国际金融危机使东亚地区货币合作又重新进入人们的视野,关于东亚货币一体化的可行性分析也进入了一个崭新的阶段。此时,我们更需要从抵御风险,实现共同发展的角度来探讨东亚货币一体化。中国作为东亚区域内有影响力的大国,应对此问题有深入思考。本文对最优货币区理论进行了有益的拓展,建立了基于微观基础的国际风险分担机制模型,并运用动态优化的方法严格证明了货币一体化所形成的国际风险分担机制使成员方达到消费保险的目的,这为进一步推动东亚货币一体化的建设提供了新的理论依据。

Under the background of economic globalization, regional monetary integration is of great significance in the economic development of the countries in the region. Because of the current international financial crisis we are rethinking profoundly the monetary cooperation in East Asia, and the analysis of feasibility has entered into a new stage. At this moment, we must rethink monetary integration in East Asia from the angle of resisting risks and realizing development together. As a powerful country in East Asia, China should consider it deeply. This paper develops the theory of optimum currency, and builds a model of international risk-sharing mechanism on the micro-basis, and by the method of dynamic optimum, strictly proves that the international risk-sharing mechanism formed by the monetary integration can let the member countries achieve the purpose of consumption insurance. The results provide a new academic base for monetary integration in East Asia.