我国分区域社会核算矩阵的乘数分析

Multiplier Analysis of Regional Social Accounting Matrices

本文在所建立的全国八大区域的社会核算矩阵的基础上,通过乘数分解,从生产部门、生产要素和城乡居民的相互依存和影响角度,对我国各个区域进行了对比和分析,实证分析表明,基于SAM的分区域乘数分析,从生产部门乘数效应角度,可以更准确的判断一个部门在区域经济中的地位和作用,更清楚的了解产业部门在区域水平和全国水平上的发展情况;而从要素、居民的乘数效应角度,能够认识不同类型的要素投入和不同组别的居民消费在区域经济中所扮演的角色。

Based on social accounting matrices of eight regions in China, this paper analyses, through multiplier decomposition, the interdependence among productive activities, productive factors and households of every region. The empirical results show that multiplier decomposition based on SAM can identity a sector＇s status in regional economy more accurately and derive the effect of a productive sector at both regional and national levels. Also, this method can examine the roles played by different factors and households in rural or urban groups.