考虑资本闲置的多年时滞人力资本投入占用产出模型

MULTIYEAR LAG HUMAN CAPITAL INPUT-HOLDING-OUTPUT MODEL WITH EXCLUDING IDLE CAPITAL

人力资本理论强调的是由教育所新增的人力资本对经济增长的决定作用.为了规划与中国经济持续增长相适应的人力资本需求,建立了一个新颖的考虑资本闲置的多年时滞投入占用产出模型.为了考虑人力资本时滞长的特点以及人力资本占用的损耗补偿,在斯通人口投入产出模型和Leontief动态投入产出模型基础上,提出了多年时滞人力资本投入占用产出模型.将LDS模型推广为考虑资本闲置的多年时滞人力资本投入占用产出模型,以便考虑影响教育产出的外生因素,并推导出既适于产出增加也适于产出减少的正解.应用上,预测至2015年的各种教育水平人力资本的总量和部门需求,发现高级人力资本短缺和人才行业结构不合理是经济发展需要解决的重要问题.

Human capital accumulated by education plays an important role in economy growth. In light of project of human capital demand in favor of sustainable development, a new multi-year lag input-holding-output model with excluding idle capital is developed. In order to embody the characteristics of long lagged time of human capital and replacement of holding human capital, a new multiyear lag human capital input-holding-output model is presented on base of Stone＇s demographic I-O model and Leontief dynamic I-O model. Then the LDS model is convexted into a new multi-year lag input-holding-output model with excluding idle capital so as to consider exogenous factors of output of education sector, and the positive solution of education output is deduced, which suit output decline as well as output expanding. As an application, demand of human capital is estimated as a whole and by industries at all education levels update to 2015, and it follows that shortfall of advanced human capital and unreasonable structure of human capital is one of the important problems which need to be resolved in development of economy.