上海市能源消费碳排放分析

Carbon Emissions from Energy Consumption in Shanghai City

根据联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)2006年版碳排放计算指南中的计算公式和碳排放系数缺省值,计算了上海市1994─2006年能源消费碳排放量.结果表明:1994年以来碳排放量逐年增加,碳排放强度不断下降,由1994年的2.51t/(104元)降到2006年的1.07 t/(104元).通过比较2005年上海与全国以及主要经济大国间的碳排放量、碳排放强度和人均碳排放量发现,上海市能源消费碳排放量占全国的3.5%;碳排放强度低于全国和全球水平,但比英国、德国、日本高;人均碳排放量为2.7 t/a,是全国和全球平均水平的2倍多,低于美国、澳大利亚和加拿大.从能源利用效率、经济增长方式、能源结构以及经济结构等角度分析了碳排放强度下降的原因,其中能源结构调整引起的平均碳排放系数下降和第三产业比重上升是主要原因.

Using the calculation methodology and carbon emission coefficients adopted by the IPCC （2006）, the amount of carbon emissions due to energy consumption in Shanghai City were calculated from 1994 to 2006. The carbon emissions increased year by year, but carbon emission intensity decreased continuously, from 2.51 t/10,000 yuan in 1994 falling to 1.07 t/10,000 yuan in 2006. By comparing the situation in Shanghai City to that of China as well as selected developed countries, the carbon emissions of Shanghai City accounted for 3.5% of China＇s total. The carbon emission intensity was lower than that in China and the global average, but higher than that in Britain, Germany and Japan. The carbon emissions per capita was 2.7 t in Shanghai City, which was two times more than that in China and the global average, but lower than that in America, Australia and Canada. The decreasing trends in carbon emission intensity were analyzed in terms of energy utilization efficiency, economic growth models, energy structure, and industry structure. Among them, energy structure adjustment presented as the decline of average carbon emission coefficient and the rising proportion of tertiary industry were the main causes of the decrease of carbon emission intensity.