卫星应用产业效益估计的相似系统方法

Similarity system theory of economic benefit estimation for satellite application industry

为了估计缺乏统计数据的中国卫星应用产业的效益,运用相似系统方法,把美国卫星应用产业系统变换成中国卫星应用产业的相似系统,由美国卫星应用产业的数据估算得到中国卫星应用产业的效益,通过主成分分析等方法对估算结果进行验证。研究表明,相似系统方法是一种合理可行的预测模型方法,不仅能解决数据不足的问题,还可以推广应用到难以直接建立数学模型的实际预测、决策和规划问题中。

To estimate the economic benefit of the China satellite application industry under the lack of statistics, the similarity system theory is adopted, which transforms the U. S. satellite application industry system into the China satellite application industry similarity system and estimates the economic benefit of the China satellite application industry based on the U.S. data. Then the results are verified through principal component analysis. The research demonstrates that the similarity system theory is a logical and feasible theory of forecast model, which can resolve not only the problem about the lack of data, but also the actual problems of forecast, decision making and programming in which it is difficult to construct mathematical models directly.