公众与美国政府贸易政策制定--以美国对华贸易政策为例

The Public and Decision-making of U.S. Trade Policy:A Case Study of America’s Trade Policy towards China

论文探究美国公众贸易偏好转化为政府贸易政策组成元素的路径,核心观点是美国公众通过政府贸易决策过程影响了政府最终贸易政策的输出。为此,作者引入了公众"议题关注周期"与"对外政策决策阶段论"两个理论。其中,公众议题关注周期包括五个阶段:问题前阶段、警觉危机和满怀乐观阶段、理智阶段、兴趣消退阶段和问题后阶段;对外政策决策阶段论认为,总统决定贸易政策时先后经历了五个阶段:问题呈现、产生选项、决策、执行和评估。在美国政府决策贸易政策的过程中,公众议题关注周期与对外政策决策阶段呈现正相关关系,表现为一个倒"V"字型的图式。上述结论在美国对华贸易政策决策的案例分析中得到了实证检验。

In this article,the author gives a detailed analysis on how the public in the U.S. shapes the American trade policies based on the 'issue attention cycle' of the public and the decision-making mentalities at different stages of the Government. The issue attention cycle has five stages: the pre-problem stage,alarmed discovery and euphoric enthusiasm,realizing the cost of significant progress,gradual decline of intense public interest,and the post-problem stage. At the same time,the presidential decision-making process has a sequence of five stages: problem representation,option generation,policy selection,implementation and policy review. By examining the case of the U.S. trade policies toward China,the author proves her key argument in this article:the public in the U.S. leaves imprints on the American trade policy by participating in the policy-making process.