人口流动对犯罪率的影响研究

Population Mobility and Crime:An Empirical Analysis Based on China's Observation

文章基于中国31个省份单位2000和2005年的数据分析发现,大规模人口流动是导致中国犯罪率急剧上升的主要原因,即便在考虑了人口流动的内生性后,这个发现依然稳健;人口流动性每提高1%大约将导致犯罪率上升3.6%,就样本区间内而言,人口流动性的提高大约能够解释犯罪率增幅的20%;此外,人口流动对犯罪的上述影响主要由省际人口流动引起,省内人口流动对犯罪率提高的影响尚缺乏证据支持。

There may be systematical differences of crime incidents between immigrants and natives,because they face different labor market conditions and social networks. Based on a pool data of 2000 and 2005 from 31 provinces of China,we find that:(1) The large-scale population mobility is the main cause of the sharp increase of crimes,which is robust after controlling for the endogeneity of population mobility;(2) Every 1% increase of population mobility will raise 3.6% of crimes,and the rise of 20% of crimes can be explained by the increase of population mobility in sample period;(3) Moreover,those influences are mainly led to by cross-province population mobility.