营业税改革对保险业影响的经济效应分析

The Economic Impact of Premium Tax on the Chinese Insurance Industry

本文结合全面开放的背景,运用战略性贸易政策的思路,引入保险公司、消费者、社会福利三项对象考察保险业营业税税制改革的经济效应,通过构建保险业营业税与社会福利模型,从理论上进行分析。基于此,应用我国保险业2001-2005年的数据进行了经验分析。主要结论为营业税的对福利总体影响并不确定,但若考虑保险业跨行业竞争力,当前降低我国保险业营业税是可行的。

In the paper, we use strategic trade policy under the opening situation to build theoretic structure. Then it induces insurance companies, consumers and welfare to study the reform of taxation in the Chinese insurance industry. And at last it uses 2001 - 2005 data of the Chinese insurance industry to test our theory. The main conclusion is that the total influence of premium tax on welfare is uncertain, and to lower the premium tax is feasible now if we take the competition between insurance and banking into consider ation.