基于实物期权理论的企业信息系统建设项目投资决策

Investment Decision of Enterprise Information Systems Project Based on Real Options Theory

在实物期权理论的框架下,根据信息系统建设项目投资的特点,分析得出可以将系统建设的投资过程看成是含有多种实物期权的序列决策。在此基础上,利用二叉树方法建立单个实物期权单阶段的定价模型,以及多阶段复合实物期权的定价模型,以期为企业在投资建设信息系统时,做出更加科学合理的投资决策提供理论依据。

By introducing the real option theory into the decision of enterprise information systems investment, a real options analysis framework is proposed for the investment decision of information systems projects. According to life cycle theory, the investment process is divided into four stages, and the uncertainty factors that might exist in each stage are analyzed. And then, various kinds of real options embodied in these uncertainty factors are identified. By utilizing the binomial pricing methodology to establish a pricing model of multi-stage compound real options, this paper further gives the quantitative assessing method. Using the proposed real options analysis framework, this paper aims at providing more justified theoretical basis for enterprises when they make investment decisions in information systems construction projects.