摘要
改革开放以来中国的外汇体制经历了许多改革,对外汇储备产生较大影响和冲击的事件有1994年汇率体制并轨、2001年加入WTO,它们极有可能会引起外汇储备发生结构变化。通过对外汇储备的外生结构变化问题进行深入的研究可以发现:外汇储备发生了结构变化,为带有结构断点的单位根过程,不考虑结构突变可能会带来"伪协整"问题。并借此预测中国的外汇储备仍将呈持续增长态势。
Since reform and opening up, China＇s foreign exchange regime has undergone numerous reforms,. events likely influencing China＇s reserves structure include exchange unification in 1994 and entry into WTO in 2001. After research of exogenous structural changes in reserves, this paper found： the structural changes are with breskpoints for the unit root process, not with ＂pseudo-Cointegration＂ issues probably produced by the structure mutation, and based on which, it precdicts the sustainable growth trend in our reserve.
出处
《福建金融管理干部学院学报》
2009年第4期10-17,共8页
Journal of Fujian Institute of Financial Administrators
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(70471021)
关键词
结构突变
外汇储备
制度变革
单位根检验
预测
Structural break
Foreign exchange reserves
Institutional change
Unit root test
Forecast
