中国与东盟贸易差额趋势研究——基于ARMA模型的实证分析

Study on China-ASEAN Trade Balance Trend——An Empirical Analysis Based on ARMA Model

随着中国东盟自由贸易区的建立,双方贸易往来将更加自由和紧密。ARMA模型预测分析表明:贸易逆差将是中国与东盟贸易差额的主要特点,并且这种状况将会长期存在,但中国与东盟的贸易逆差数额却呈现出逐年减少的态势,而且减少速度呈递增趋势,其原因是中国-东盟自由贸易区建设进程的加快。转变贸易增长方式、加快中国与东盟产业对接与转移、加强双方服务贸易领域的合作将是应对这种变动态势的有效选择。

With the development of CAFTA, international trade between China-ASEAN will be more free and closer. Based on ARMA forecasting model, the essay shows that the trade deficit between China and ASEAN will be the main features of the trade balance, and this situation will exist for a long time. The process of building the China - ASEAN Free Trade Area of has speeded up. The adjustment in tariff is beneficial to the growth of Chinese exports. China should make a transfer in trade growth, dock and transfer the industry with ASEAN, and strengthen cooperation in the field of serviees. Then it can deal with the negative impact caused by this change.