余江县农业持续化实证研究

Empirical study on agricaltural sustainability in Yujiang County

采用SPSS软件的主成分分析方法,利用余江县50 a的统计资料,对该县农业发展进行分析.结果表明,随着农业集约度的增加,农业投入加大,生产条件得到极大的改善,该县农业生产持续性、经济持续性和生态持续性都得到不同程度的提高,最终使得农业持续性增强.1998年与1949年相比,生产持续性、经济持续性和生态持续性分别增加了85.15%,23.66倍,47.38%,年均递增率分别为1.27%,6.76%,0.79%.农业持续性从0.229 4提高到0.753 3,增加了2.29倍,年递增达到了2.46%.利用农业集约度和农业持续性相互关系建立模型,两者之间具有显著的正相关关系,且农业集约度每增加1个单位,农业可持续性就增加了0.000 1.因此,农业集约化能够促进农业可持续发展.

The principle components method of SPSS software was adopted. The agricultural statistical data in Yujiang county, Jiangxi province since 1949 was used to analyze the agricultural development of the county. The results show with the increase of the agricultural intensification and agricultural input, agricultural production condition was highly improved. The production sustainability, economic sustainability and ecological sustainability were enhanced differently, which strengthened the agricultural sustainability. Compared with that of 1949, the production sustainability, economic sustainability and ecological sustainability increased by 85.15% , 23.66% , and 47.38% , respectively; at the same time, the increasing rate was 1.27% , 6. 76% , 0. 79% , respectively. Agricultural sustainability reached 0. 753 3 in 1998, but it was only 0. 229 4 in 1949. It had been boosted 3 times since 1949. According to the model between agricultural intensification and sustainability, they had positive correlation relationship, and if agricultural intensification was raised by 1 unit, the agricultural sustainability would be enhanced by 0.000 1.