用数学期望建立的出生人口预测模型

A Model to Estimate Birth Number Built Using Mathematical Expectation

目的：建立一个简便的出生人口预测模型。方法：计算生育年龄的数学期望，讨论该年龄妇女的生育数与出生总数的关系。结果：依据（ｔ－２５）年的出生人口数和ｔ年的总和生育率预测ｔ年的出生人口数。结论：该方法简便，预测效果好。

Objective:build a facile model to estimate birth number.Methods:calculate mathematical expectation of birth age,discuss the relation of this aged womens' birth number and the total birth number.Result:according to the birth numberB(t-25)and the total birth rate G(t) to estimate the birth number B(t).Conclusion:This model is very facile and the results are satisfying.It can provide the data for family planning.