昆虫抗药性的治理策略:一个数学模型的提出

ANALYSIS AND SIMULATION OF THE STRATEGIES OF INSECTICIDE RESISTANCE MANAGEMENT WITH A MATHEMATICAL MODEL

本文用计算机模型分析及评价了昆虫抗药性的三种治理策略:顺序轮用,“高杀死”策略及棋盘式用药。假设昆虫具有一定的生物学特性:如抗性为单基因,单抗性,抗性基因为半显性,两性生殖,昆虫有扩散习性,感性系在不施药情况下有微弱的适应优势等。分析了用不同剂量造成的不同的死亡率,不同的反选择作用,不同的基因稀释作用等情况对三个策略的影响。结果显示出,在这些情况下,用3—5种杀虫剂隔代顺序轮用加上微弱的反选择作用是最为有效的。“高杀死”策略加上一定的稀释作用也极为有效。棋盘式用药在特殊情况下才有用。

A mathematical model is set up to analyze and simulate three different strategies of insecticide resistance management: the sequential use of 3-5 insecticides; the 'high kill' policy, with immigration of susceptibles; and the 'patch' or 'checker-board' system of insecticide application, The results show that the sequential use of 3-5 insecticides, each for one generation, gives the best result provided that there is no cross resistance among the insecticides. 'High kill' policy with immigration of certain mumber of susceptibles is also an effective means, though it may not be acceptable from the viewpoint of integrated pest management. 'Patch' system of insecticide application is generally a failure, unless the immigration rate is very high (about one half of the initial population).