扩大信贷投放与GDP增长关系:对上海市的实证研究

The Relationship between the Expansion of Loan and the Growth of GDP:the Empirical Analysis of Shanghai

本文以上海地区为例,通过对不同来源的固定资产投资资金(其中包括银行贷款)与GDP增长的相关性分析,以及银行业机构各类贷款与GDP增长的关联度分析,发现上海投资资金中的国内贷款、国家预算内资金与GDP增长的线性关系最显著,银行业机构的人民币短期工业贷款、人民币中长期基础建设贷款与GDP增长的关联度最高。

Based on the correlation analysis on fixed assets investment capital from different sources （including bank loans） and the growth of GDP in Shanghai, the paper suggests that the linear relation- ships between domestic loan, state budget fired and the growth of GDP are significant. Further analysis on various loans of banking institutions and the growth of GDP in Shanghai shows that the grey correlation degrees between RMB short - term industrial loan, RMB long - term fundamental construction loan and the growth of GDP are quite obvious.