城市交通投资的消费者福利评价

Urban Transport Investment Evaluation by Using Consumer Welfare

城市交通中多种出行方式共存等特性使传统的成本-效益分析法难以分析出交通投资产生的效果。文中假设发生在各起讫点间的交通出行是1个消费者代表的出行选择结果,推导一般均衡条件下交通服务供应水平变化与消费者剩余之间的关系。通过Logit模型模拟方式选择得到需求函数,结果显示交通投资产生的消费者福利与交通方式选择集的最大效用的期望值有关,表明以离散选择模型为基础的福利评价方法适用于多种交通投资的效果评价,包括交通方式选择集发生变化的情况。

The traditional cost-benefit analysis of a transport investment is not easy to apply in that multiple modes coexist in urban transport. By considering the transport of each origination-destination pair as the choice of a representative consumer, the relationship of consumer surplus and service supply level was analyzed on the condition of general equi librium. The demand function was derived from the travel mode choice Logit model. As a result, it is found that the ex pected maximum utility from the Logit model can be used as a measure of consumer welfare. This makes the proposed welfare evaluation method based on discrete choice model applicable to estimating the welfare even if the mode choice set changes.