论金融危机冲击下区域经济转型的动力机制——基于BPCG模型的分析

On the Dynamic Mechanism of Regional Economic Transition under Financial Crisis: Based on BPCG Model

本文将"国际收支约束下的经济增长理论"(BPCG模型)引入区域经济转型的分析框架。笔者认为,区域经济转型应在开放条件的宏观视角建立微观基础。区域经济转型的动力机制来自金融危机外部冲击与内部压力,动力机制主要表现为经济结构的提升、经济体制的更新和投资模式的转变。面对金融危机,浙江应继续发挥出口导向型经济的优势,通过产业升级与经济结构调整,积极发展高端制造业,以此提高我国出口产品的需求弹性(ε);继续发展进口替代型经济,降低对国外进口产品的需求弹性(π);扩大海外投资,保持出口竞争优势,从而实现国际收支约束下的经济增长。

This paper introduces ＂balance of payments constraint growth theory＂ （ BPCG model） to the analytical framework of regional economic transition. Regional economic transition should establish micro-foundation based on maero-perspective in open condition. Regional economic transition dynamic mechanism comes from exterior financial crisis and internal pressure, which mainly reflects on the economie structure upgrading, economic system renovation and investment mode transformation. Facing finaneial crisis, Zhejiang should continue to take advantage of export-oriented economic through industrial upgrading, economic restructuring and actively developing high-end manufacturing to raise the demand elasticity （ε） of export products. Zhejiang should continue to develop import substitution-based economy to reduce the demand elasticity （π） of foreign import products, expand overseas investment and maintain a competitive export superiority to realize balance of payments constraint growth.