近50a来塔里木河源流区年径流量的持续性和趋势性统计特征分析

Analyses of the Durative and Tendency of Annual Runoff in the Headwaters of the Tarim River in the Recent 50 Years

对塔里木河源流区三条源流5个水文控制站1957—2003年近50 a的年均气温、降水及年径流资料,在进行Mann-Kendall非参数统计检验的基础上,运用R/S法分析了5个水文控制站年径流量的Hurst指数,以统计特征估计未来径流量的变化趋势.结果显示:由于近年来温度的持续升高,阿克苏河的径流量有显著的增加趋势,并且其增长的持续性较强;和田河的径流量有微递减的趋势,但趋势并不显著,在未来的变化中,其随机性较强;叶尔羌河的径流量虽表现出增加的趋势,但趋势不显著,其径流量在未来的变化中将会是反持续性与随机性共存.

Based on the Mann-Kendall nonparamettic tests on the annual mean temperature, annual precipitation and annual runoff from five hydrological stations in the headwaters of Tarim River from 1957 to 2003, Hurst indexes were analyzed by means of R/S method to analyze the statistical characteristics of durative and tendency of runoff. It is found that due to the increasing temperature in the basin, the annual runoff in the Aksu River had an obviously increasing tendency, and the persistence of the tendency was very obvious; the annual runoff in the Hotan River had an insignificant tendency of decreasing, and a random variation will be strong in the future; the annual runoff in the Yarkand River also had an insignificant tendency of increasing, and a reverse persistence and a randomness will coexist in the future.