虚拟水战略优势度及其评价

Advantage Degree of Virtual Water Strategy and Its Evaluation

基于对虚拟水战略内涵以及虚拟水战略背景对我国不同区域经济社会发展影响认识上的差异,特提出虚拟水战略优势度的概念,用以量度区域虚拟水战略实施的适宜性以及虚拟水战略背景对区域经济社会生态等的影响程度.分析了虚拟水战略优势度的概念内涵及其影响因素,从水资源供给、非农水资源需求、水资源管理和农业发展4个方面构建了包含12个具体指标的综合定量评价指标体系,对我国31个省级行政区虚拟水战略优势度进行了定量评价.结果表明:我国虚拟水战略优势度存在显著的区域差异,而且,优势度等级存在"两头多,中间少"的结构特点和"东部高、西部低","南部和北部高、中间低"的带状空间分布规律.其中北方4省市和东南8省区优势度最大,是全球虚拟水战略背景对其影响最为深远的区域,也是我国虚拟水研究及虚拟水战略实践的关键区域.

Aiming at the disagrees on the under-standing of the virtual water strategy and the effects for different regions, Advantage Degree of Virtual Water Strategy （ADVWS） is defined to evaluate the feasibility of implementing virtual water strategy and the regional economic, social and ecological effects for different regions under virtual water strategy background all over the world. The connotation and its impact factors of ADVWS are analyzed, then an evaluating system including 12 indices is established, which consists of 4 aspects： supply of water resources, demand of non-agricultural water resources, water resources management and development of agriculture. The grades of ADVWS for 31 provinces/regions of China are calculated. The evaluating results demonstrate the grades of ADVWS in China have notable regional discrepancy; most of the provinces/regions in China have a medium grade of ADVWS. The grade in the east is higher than that in the west, and in the south, as well as in the north, is higher than that in the center. The grade of ADVWS in Inner Mongol, Shanxi, Beijing, and Tianjin of North China and in Hainan, Guangdong, Guangxi, Zhejiang, Fujian, Hunan, Jiangxi, Shanghai of South and Southeast China is high, so these provinces/regions are the key regions of the virtual strategy research and practice in China.