道路通行能力不确定性分析方法研究

Study on the Roadway Capacity Uncertainty Analysis Methods

在分析通行能力不确定性及其产生的原因基础上,应用数理统计有关概念给出了通行能力不确定性度量方法.针对通行能力是估计值的特点,提出了应用自助法来分析通行能力的不确定性问题.最后,结合快速路基本路段通行能力的速度-流量统计分析模型,应用上述方法对快速路基本路段通行能力不确定性进行了分析.

Based on the analysis of uncertainty of capacity and the uncertainty causes,statistical concepts are used to measure the uncertainty in capacity computing.According to the characteristic of capacity that the capacity value is estimated,the bootstrap method is recommended to be used to analyze the uncertainty of capacity.At last,Combined with the velocity-volume model,the uncertainty of capacity on basic segment of urban expressway is analyzed using bootstrap method.