汇率变动的农业贸易效应模型述评

The Models on Effects of Exchange Rate Movements on Agricultural Trade:A Literature Survey

已有文献从微观和宏观视角构建了汇率变动的农业贸易效应模型,指出汇率水平变动、汇率波动性风险负面影响农业贸易流。尽管这些模型得出了一致的结论,但却根基于不同的假定之上,由此可将其归结为出口供给模型、进口需求模型、出口供给进口需求均衡模型、出口需求方程、引力模型五类。对于前三类模型,要得出汇率波动性风险负面影响农业贸易流的结论,必须依赖于厂商风险厌恶假设。未来研究需要基于发展中国家特点提出假设条件拓展已有模型,同时在模型中引入合适的变量,以突出农业贸易特征。

The literatures have constructed models on effects of exchange rate movements on agricultural trade from micro and macro aspects with the conclusions： exchange rate level changes and volatility risks impede agricultural trade flows. These models are based on different hypotheses, leading to be classified into five groups ： export supply model, import demand model, equilibrium model of export supply and import demand, export demand function, gravitation model. For the former three models, the conclusion of negative impacts of exchange rate volatility risks on agricultural trade depends on＇ the hypothesis that firm is risk - reverse. In future research these models should be developed based on the assumptions compatible with the characteristics of developing countries, and suitable variables be introduced into models in order to highlight the features of agricultural trade.