“无核武器世界”运动评析

Analysis on the Campaign for a Nuclear Weapons Free World

由于核武器在国家安全战略中的作用降低、核恐怖主义的威胁日益迫近、国际防扩散体制面对多种挑战、核能的和平利用增加了核技术与核材料扩散的概率以及美国奥巴马政府的安全战略从追求"绝对安全"转向寻求"合作安全",2007年1月,美国四位前政要再次呼吁建立"无核武器世界",在国际政坛上得到了积极响应,拉开了新一轮无核运动的序幕。此次无核运动的基本主张涉及达成彻底消除核武器的广泛共识、采取渐进和有效的无核化措施以及确定迈向无核武器世界的模式等三个方面的内容,具有启动恰在其时、有更大的号召力、国际动员广泛、对决策形成冲击力、获得较多政府支持等特点。然而,此次运动仍面对着巨大的阻力,其成功冲击"无核武器世界"顶峰的机会依然渺茫,我们只能期待新一轮核裁军谈判。

As the role of nuclear weapons is devalued in national security strategies,the threat of nuclear terrorism looms large,international nonproliferation system confronts with severe challenges,the peaceful use of nuclear power increases the possibility of proliferation of nuclear technology and materials,and the new US government pursues 'cooperative security' rather than 'absolute security','a world free of nuclear weapons' initiative,put forward by the four senior American politicians in January 2007,received enthusiastic responses worldwide and introduced a new wave of abolishing nuclear weapons campaign. The initiative includes suggestions of three aspects:reaching world consensus,taking step-by-step and effective measures,and designing the modes towards a world free of nuclear weapons. This campaign enjoys a right timing,strong rallying point,wide international mobilization,great impact on the political leaders,and more support from the governments. However,with great obstacles,there's a slim hope to truly realize a world free of nuclear weapons,but a new round of nuclear disarmament negotiations can be expected.