GM(1,1)模型预测火炮研制费用的应用

Study on GM(1,1) for Forecasting the Development Cost of Self-propelled Gun

随着科学技术的发展,寿命周期费用日益受到重视,尤其是寿命周期费用中研制阶段的费用对寿命周期费用起到决定作用。利用GM(1,1)灰色理论对自行火炮寿命周期费用中的研制费用进行分析,建立了基于GM(1,1)灰色理论的自行火炮研制费用分析通用时间序列模型,并以某自行火炮研制费用为实例,利用SPSS统计软件对文中建立的灰色预测模型进行了分析计算。其计算和检测的结果表明模型可靠、精度较高,为自行火炮研制费用分析提供新的理论分析方法。

With the development of the science, we are playing more and more attention on the study of life cycle cost. Especially,the development cost is the most important as a part of the life cycle cost. This article introduces grey theories to analysis the development cost of life cycle cost of self-propelled gun. setting up a development cost model ,taking the development of a self-propelled gun and making use of SPSS for working out the model ,which offers a dependable model and a simple calculation method to analysis development cost of self-propelled gun.