长白山地区景观格局过程模拟预测研究

Simulation and Predicted Research on Changbai Mountain Landscape Pattern Process

利用1985年和1999年两期遥感数据、地理数据并经实地考察,提取了长白山地区近20年的景观格局过程信息图谱;基于地学信息图谱和景观生态学理论,结合地理元胞自动机模型,建立了景观格局信息模拟与预测模型;综合考虑坡度、高程、坡向等对景观格局的影响因素,采用Matlab平台实现了对长白山地区景观格局过程信息的模拟与预测;将模拟的1985年和1999年长白山地区景观格局过程信息图谱与对应年份的遥感图像获得的景观格局过程图谱进行点对点对比,获得其总体精度1985年为84%,1999年为82%。采用MoranI指数获得定量的评价结果,计算1985年、1999年真实和模拟的MoranI指数分别为0.56、0.53和0.72、0.70,可以看出模拟结果和实际情况十分接近。

Using the remote sensing and geographic data respectively collected in 1985 and 1999, we extract the landscape pattern information TuPu of Changbai Mountain for the recent 20 years, and build a model for the simulation and prediction of the landscape pattern information based on the geo-infospectrum, landscape ecology theory and Geo-CA model. We perform a point-to-point comparison of the simulated 1985 and 1999 landscape pattern information TuPu of Changbai Mountain with that from the corresponding remote sensed image, and get a general precision of 84% in 1985 and 82% in 1999. The Moran I index is used to get the quantitative evaluation result,0.56,0.53 and 0.72,0.70 are individually the genuine and simulative Moran I index of 1985 and 1999. We can conclude that the simulation result is close to the actual situation.