关于中国地震孕育和前兆机理研究的讨论

DISCUSSION ABOUT STUDIES ON SEISMOGENIC PROCESS AND EARTHQUAKE PRECURSORY MECHANISM IN CHINA

地震预测研究面临低水平的预测与政府和公众的高期望值的矛盾。加强机理研究是根本出路之一。地震前兆观测属于广义地球物理反演，它不应照搬地球物理勘探的现成方法，而应找出新的思路。中国与美国、前苏联和日本等国家地震发生的构造背景不同，应发展适合中国大陆地质条件的震源物理理论和方法。地震前兆机理研究存在３个完备性问题：①地震前兆存在性与不存在性的正反两个方面的论证；②前兆物理量的可测性论证；③实验模拟条件的相似性论证。这３个完备性是判断该研究是否成熟的重要标志。地震预测实验场的设立，不宜采用无把握的“守株待兔”的办法。建议将实验场设立在必然有多次发生诱发构造地震可能的矿山或大型水库。

Earthquake prediction research is now facing the contradiction between the low prediction level and the high expectations of governments and the public.One of the fundamental way out is to strengthen the research of precursory mechanism.The observation of earthquake precursors belongs to generalized geophysical inversion , the existing methods of geophysical prospecting should not be copied indiscriminately,but we should seek a new way out .The structure setting of earthquake occurrences in China is different that of other countries, such as the United States and Japan,so we should develop the theory and method of seismic source physics suited to the geologic conditions of the Chinese mainland.There are three aspects of perfections in the studies of earthquake precursory mechanism:(1)positive and negative proofs of existence and inexistence;(2)proof of measurable physical quantities of precursors;(3)proof of similarity of simulation conditions.These three perfections are significant marks to judge whether the study is ripe or not .For the establishment of earthquake prediction experimental sites,it is inadvisable to use the method“Stand by a stump waiting for more hares to come and dash themselves against it——trust to chance and strokes of luck” that have no certainty of success,and it is also not suitable to use the method of mobile observation. The authors suggest that earthquake prediction experimental sites should be established in the mines or large reservoir areas where tectonic earthquakes may be induced many times.