TSIP中期地震预报方法在辽宁地区的应用与研究

APPLICATION AND STUDY OF TSIP METHOD ON INTERMEDIATE TERM EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION IN LIAONING REGION

本文用ＣＮ算法研究了辽宁省两个地震重点监视防御区的中强震前的强震发生概率增长时间，结果表明预测效果较好，有震报准率为９０％，ＴＩＰ预测警戒占时空率为３０％左右，Ｒ值评分为０．６左右。在ＴＩＰ预测的基础上，进一步用ＳＩＰ方法分析这两个区域的空间背景发震概率的不均匀分布。综合应用ＴＩＰ方法和ＳＩＰ方法，对辽宁省及邻近地区进行了试验性地震预报。

This paper applies TSIP method intermediate term earthquake prediction to two important regions of Liaoning province to study the time increment probability before strong earthquakes.The result shows a better prediction effectiveness.The proportion of successive earthquake prediciton is 90%.Time of TIP alarm is about 30% of total time.The value R is about 0 6.Based on TIP method,we used SIP method to analysis the space probability.With TIP method and SIP method,we attempt to study the forecasting of Liaoning and adjacent areas.