三峡水库塌岸预测的多元回归法

MULTIPLE REGRESSION METHOD OF PEDICTION OF BANK COLLAPSE IN THE THREE GORGES

三峡水库蓄水后,库岸由于受到各种因素影响,将产生水库塌岸。由于三峡地质条件复杂,目前的塌岸预测方法不能全面考虑各影响因素进行准确塌岸预测。本论文以三峡水库为典型实例,在对三峡库区典型塌岸段地质环境条件调查研究的基础上,考虑了岸坡坡角、库水位、土质、降雨强度及波浪等因素进行物理模拟试验,系统地研究了各影响因素与岸坡塌岸宽度之间的关系。根据大量的水库塌岸物理模拟试验结果,提出了1种新的水库塌岸宽度预测方法-"多元回归法"。实例检验结果表明,利用"多元回归法"可以较为准确地预测三峡水库岸坡的塌岸宽度。"多元回归法"适用于三峡水库蓄水后一定时期内,位于上游波浪作用较小地区的土质岸坡的塌岸预测。由于该方法主要基于物理模拟试验结果,缺乏理论推导,因此,还需要经过大量的实例检验,验证其有效性。

Influenced by all kinds of factors, Bank collapse will be happened after the Three Gorges stores water. Because of complicate geologic condictions of the Three Gorges, many methods of prediction of bank collapse which is including a little influence factors can not pretict width of bank collapse in the Three Gorges accurately. On the basis of study on geology environment condition in the Three Gorges in the article, Physical modeling experiments is done. such factors as angle of slope, water level, intensity of the rain and wave are considered in these experiments. According to modeling experiments, the relation between width of bank collapse and every influence factors is researched and a new method named of multiple regression method which is used to predict wideth of reservoir bank collapse is put forward. The width of bank collapse can be predicted accurately with this method proved by results of some examples. Multiple regression method is suitable for earthiness bank which is at the beginning of the river in which wave is short in a short time after it stores water. Because the method which is lack of theory deduction comes from results of Physical modeling experiments, it needs to check its effectiveness by results of some examples.