泰勒规则与我国货币政策非线性反应函数的实证研究

An Empirical Study of Taylor Rule and the Non-linear Response Function of China’s Monetary Policy

基于泰勒规则以及借助门限自回归(TAR)模型,对1996年1月至2008年6月期间我国货币政策非线性反应函数进行的实证研究结果表明,我国货币政策的反应函数是非线性的,即面对经济运行的不同状况,中央银行对通货膨胀和产出偏差反应系数的大小是不断变化的;并且货币政策目标的侧重点也会根据经济运行态势的变化而相应地进行调整,即在低通货膨胀状态下,货币政策更侧重于促进经济增长,但在温和以及较高通货膨胀状态下,货币政策会侧重于防止通胀。

On the basis of Taylor rule and TAR model, this paper makes an empirical study of the non-linear response function of China＇s monetary policy during the period from January, 1996 to June, 2008. It shows that the response function of China＇s monetary policy is non-linear, that is, faced with the different conditions of economic operation, the response coefficient of the central bank is changing constantly toward inflation and output deviation. In addition, the focus of the monetary policy objectives will also be adjusted according to the changes of economic operation conditions, i.e. in the low inflation state, the monetary policy will emphasize more on stimulating economic growth; while in the moderate and higher inflation states, the monetary policy will focus on inflation prevention.