近50年辽宁朝阳地区气温与降水趋势变化对农业生产的影响

Effect of Changes of Temperature and Precipitation Trend on Agricultural Production in 50 Years at Chaoyang District in Liaoning

[目的]掌握朝阳地区热量及水资源变化趋势,为农业结构调整及趋利避害提供依据。[方法]应用常规数理统计方法,一元线性拟合渐近线在Escel程序中解析出热量资源要素增加幅度。[结果]朝阳地区3个气候区变暖幅度存在差异,1960～2008年的年平均气温升高0.8～1.9℃,以冬季升温最明显;年降水量减少50 mm左右,减少时间主要在夏季。[结论]气温升高、降水减少对农业气象资源和灾害存在着不同的影响,对农业生产的影响利弊共存。

[ Objective ] The study aimed to master the changes of heat and water resources in Chaoyang district, and offer basis for adjusting structure and avoiding-disaster. [Method] Though applying the method of common mathematical statistics, the increasing extent of factors of heat resource were resolved by linear asymptote in Escel procedure. [ Result] The warming extent of 3 district in Chaoyang existed differences , average temperature increased 0.8 - 1.9 ℃, and that in winter was the most obvious; the annual precipitation induced 50 millimeter, and mainly in summer from 1960 to 2008. [ Conclusionl The temperature increase and precipitation decrease had different effect on agrometeorology resources and disaster, and had both advantages and disadvantages in agricultural production.