气候变化对黄河流域水资源影响研究进展

Research on Climate Change Impact on Water Resource of Yellow River Basin

20世纪90年代以来,黄河流域天然径流量大幅减少,水资源供需矛盾已经成为制约流域社会经济可持续发展的重大问题。本文概述了国内外气候变化对流域水文水资源影响的研究进展;论述了气候变化对黄河流域水文水资源影响研究的方法、结果和最新进展及黄河流域气候变化对水资源影响研究的问题。建议今后加强基础数据和资料的分析研究,建立适合黄河流域的多情景综合气候评价模型;提高黄河流域极端气象水文事件预测能力,为流域水资源管理和综合规划服务。

After 1990s the natural runoff of the Yellow river basin substantially reduced, water supply and demand has become a major problem constraining social and economic sustainable development of river basin. A summarization of domestic and international progress of climate change effect on basin water resources is given first, then followed by an overview of approach, result and new progress of research on climate change impact on the Yellow river basin, which are discussed from climate change impact on water resources and some problems relative to climate change impact research in the Yellow river are discussed. In order to serve for basin integrated management and planning, some research need to be strengthened in further work, which includes strengthening the analysis of basic data and materials relative to climate change and water resources in the Yellow river basin, improving the integrated evaluation model suit for the Yellow river basin and advancing forecasting on extreme meteorological and hydrological events.