边坡变形预测的混沌时间序列全局近似方法

The Whole-region Method of Chaotic Time Series for Slope Deformation Prediction

边坡系统的各种参量是不确定的和随机的,在其演化过程中发生一系列的混沌现象.运用现代混沌理论,对边坡变形的预测问题进行探索性研究,把混沌时间序列全局近似方法引入到边坡工程研究中,对该理论的建立及预测方法进行系统地讨论.通过对新滩滑坡的研究结果表明,混沌时间序列方法对混沌序列的预测较线性时间序列具有较高的精度.

The parameters in the slope system are uncertain and random due to the slpoe complexity,a series of chaos can be appeared in the course of the slope evolution. The Whole-region Method of chaotic time series is presented for predicting the slope deformation based on the Chaotic Theory. The construction of prediction model and the process of application are discussed in detailed, further the method is used to analyze the deformation of Xintan landslide. The research results indicates that this prediction method can get better result than conventional time series method.