菲利普斯曲线与中国通货膨胀动态拟合

Phillips Curves and the Prediction of China's Inflation Dynamics

围绕着菲利普斯曲线的争论从未停止过,对旨在对具体环境下的通胀行为做出有用总结的菲利普斯曲线来说,重要的在于探寻导致曲线变动的深层原因何在。本文认为生产率和潜在产出的增长是解释菲利普斯曲线位移的核心变量,生产率快于名义量的调整以及潜在产出比以往更高的增长率均会形成化解通胀压力的力量。本文对简单预期增强的菲利普斯曲线做出修正,将价格调整的生产率与名义增长缺口加入模型,所得结果较好地拟合了中国的通胀动态,凸显了修正后的菲利普斯曲线对于中国反通胀措施的现实意义。

The debates on Phillips Curves has never ceased, while the most important thing to Phillips Curves which aims to give a useful summarization of inflation behavior under a specific circumstances is to explore the deeply rooted reasons that cause the curves to shift. This paper believes that productivity and potential output growth are the core variables to those shifts, the fact that productivity adjusts more quickly than nominal variables and a higher growth rate of potential output than before forms a strength capable of resolving inflationary pressure. Thus this paper modifies the simple Expectations-Augmented Phillips Curve by adding price adjusted productivity and nominal growth gap, such modified models fit China＇s inflation dynamics pretty well and thus reveal their practical significance as for the anti-inflation measures.