全球气候变化下秦岭南北气候生产力时空对比研究

Comparative Study of Temporal and Spatial Climate Productivity in North-South Qinling under Global Climate Change

根据秦岭南北60个气象站点1961-2007年气象资料,利用Thornthwaite Memoriai模型计算了秦岭南北关中、陕南地区的气候生产力,分析了其时空分布特征,并对该地区气候生产力的长期变化趋势进行了初步估测。研究表明:秦岭南北气候生产力值介于9525.0～14156.2 kg/hm2.a之间,陕南大于关中;其空间分布由北向南逐步增加,西安、咸阳地区最小,安康地区最大;近半个世纪以来秦岭南北气候生产力呈递减趋势,关中趋势更为明显;就年代变化而言,秦岭南北变化步调一致但幅度有别:60、80年代为正距平,70年代、以及进入21世纪后变化不大,90年代急剧减少;随着气候日益暖干,气候生产力将进一步下降,农作物很可能因高温缺水而减产。

According to the meteorological data of the North and the South Qinling Mountain between the year 1961-2007, using Thomthwaite Memoriai model, this paper has calculated the climate productivity in this area, analysed its spatial and temporal characteristics, and also estimated the region＇s long-term changing trends. The results shows that the North and the South Qinling climate productivity values ranged from 9525.0 ×14156.2 kg/hm^2·a, with the south greater than North; Its spatial distribution increases from north to south; In recent 50 years, the productivity number decreased gradually, with Guanzhong more obvious; On the terms of the changing in ages, the North and the South Qinling change in the same step, but different in extent： the numbers are higher than normal during the 60s and 80s,in the 70s as well as entering the 21st century, the numbers changed little, and decreased sharply in 90s; With global warming, climate productivity will be further reduced.