滞胀风险下的宏观经济调整与货币政策选择

Macroeconomic Adjustment and Monetary Policy Options under the Risk of Stagflation

随着金融危机向实体经济转移和扩散,我国经济增长出现下滑,已远低于潜在增长率;而由宽松货币政策所导致的广义货币供应量在不断增加,通货膨胀压力正逐步显现。在外需短期无法恢复、内需相对不足的情况下,滞胀的风险在逐步加大。VEC模型结果表明:货币流通速度、广义货币供应量增长速度共同决定我国通货膨胀率。当经济景气程度上升、货币流通速度加快时,货币供应量增长过快会引发通货膨胀。因此,现阶段应在有效监控经济景气程度和货币流通速度的基础上,对宏观经济政策进行微调,以便提高政策搭配效果,有效化解风险。

With the international financial crisis changing to real economy crisis, China＇s economic growth rate has been quickly lowered and far below the potential growth rate; As a result of loose monetary policy brought about the im- provement of growth of broad money, domestic inflationary pressures are gradually emerging. Under the conditions of ex- ternal demand in the short term can not be restored and the relative lack of effective domestic demand, the risk of stagfla- tion is gradually increasing. The results of VEC model show that flow rate of the currency and broad money growth rote determine the domestic inflation rate; when the degree of the Economic prosperity increases and the velocity of money cir- culation speeds up, excessive money supply growth will lead to inflation. Therefore, at this stage, China should be car- ried out on fine - tuning in order to effectively resolve the risks, and to increase the effect of policy mix on the basis of the effective monitoring of the degree of economic prosperity and the flow rate of the currency.