基于项目网络图的人民币汇率浮动的路径分析

RMB Exchange Rate Floating Path Analysis Based on Project Network Planning

以中国金融改革为背景,首先在概括资本市场与汇率浮动关系有关文献的基础上,结合我国资本市场发展现状和汇率形成机制,理清我国资本市场改革和人民币汇率浮动之间的具体关系。其次重点运用了项目网络图工具,理出金融改革过程中的人民币汇率浮动的关键路径——即完善企业债券市场-建立和完善外汇现货市场-建立和完善人民币国际债券。关键路径分析表明:实现人民币在外汇现货市场的国际互换和国际贸易结算、国际债券市场的国际借贷,将是实现人民币汇率浮动的必要条件。

Under the background of China＇s financial reform, firstly, this paper sorts out the concrete relationship between China＇ s capital marketization reform and RMB exchange rate fluctuation basing on summarizing the related litera- ture on capital market and exchange rate fluctuation and combining China＇s capital market and exchange rate forming mechanism. Secondly, using project network planning, this paper also sorts out the key path of RMB exchange rate float- ing in the process of financial reform, which is, improving corporate capital market establishing and improving for- eign exchange spot market - - establishing and improving RMB international capital market. The analysis on key path shows that achieving the international exchange and trade balance of RMB in spot foreign exchange market and the inter- national debit and credit in the international bond market will be the necessary conditions to achieve the RMB exchange rate floating mechanism.