摘要
针对近百年来九江年降水时间序列资料，应用分形理论，探讨了不同嵌入相空间下时间序列关联维的变化规律。计算得到了其饱和关联维数ｄ＝５．０８，最低嵌入维ｍ＝９以及Ｋｏｌｏｍｏｇｏｒｏｖ熵ｋ＝０．４５２。结果表明，九江年降水时间序列是一混沌序列。从而，为进一步建立年降水预测预报模型奠定了基础。
In accordance with the annual precipitation data of the past hundred years in Jiujiang, the fractal theory is applied in investigating the relationship between fractal dimension and the dimension of imbedding space. Its saturation value of relation fractal dimension and the smallest dimension of imbedding space as well as the Kolmologorov entropy are calculated, that is d =5.08 and m =9 as well as K = 0.452 . All those results indicate that the time series of annual precipitation in Jiujiang is a chaotic series. Therefore,the study on chaotic characteristics of annual precipitation will provide a scientific basis for formulating the forecast model of annual precipitation.
出处
《江西科学》
1998年第3期141-145,共5页
Jiangxi Science
基金
博士后科学基金
