乌鲁木齐市近47年气温降水特征与突变分析

Analysis on the characteristics of temperature and precipitation and break in Urumqi since recent 47 years

利用乌鲁木齐市的气温和降水资料,运用气候趋势系数、一元回归分析法和5年趋势滑动,进行了气候变化的趋势分析。结果表明:乌鲁木齐市气温和降水的变化趋势基本与西北地区气候变化趋势一致;春季和夏季气温呈下降趋势,秋冬季呈上升趋势,冬季增温幅度最大;四季降水量呈增加趋势,冬季降水量增加趋势最明显。在此基础上,利用滑动T检验法、YAMAMOTO检验信噪比(SNR)、Cram er法和M ann-Kendall法进行气候突变分析,结果表明:气温突变比降水突变明显,气温在1962年发生突变。

In this paper, the recent 47a of ground -based observations, the change trend of annual air temperature and precipitation, methods of regression analysis and moving average were used to study the climatic changing trend of the study area under the background of global warming. Results showed that the change trend of annual air temperature in Urumqi was accorded with that in northwestern China since the 1990s except the negative correlation between the annual temperature in Urumqi and that in northwestern China in the 1960s, 1970s, 1980s, and the temperature increased continuously. In spring and summer, changing trends of temperature was downward, in autumn and winter, changing trends of temperature was upward, and the winter＇s was the biggest. Four seasons＇ precipitation changing trends were upward, especially the winter was obvious. Methods of T checking,YAMAMOTO（SNR） ,Cramer and Mann- Kendal were employed to analyze the climatic break indicating that the abrupt change of temperature was more noticeable than that of precipitation in the study areak. The abrupt change of temperature may occur in 1962.