黑龙江省低温冷害风险评估与区划研究

Study on risk assessment and zoning of low temperature and cold damage in Heilongjiang Province

黑龙江省是我国重要的商品粮生产基地,也是低温冷害发生比较频繁的地区之一,研究低温冷害发生的风险水平及其空间分布,是各级政府部门进行防灾减灾的重要依据。文中采用自然灾害风险指数法、层次分析法和加权综合评价法,在计算黑龙江省各县市低温冷害的危险性、暴露性和脆弱性的基础上,通过计算黑龙江省低温冷害风险指数LCDR Ii,对黑龙江省低温冷害进行风险评估与区划研究。研究结果表明:黑龙江省低温冷害高风险区主要集中分布于黑龙江省西北部漠河县和塔河县,这一地区应该成为黑龙江省防御低温冷害的重点;黑龙江省低温冷害中风险区零星分布于黑龙江省各个地区,这些地区承灾体的脆弱性较大,所以低温冷害风险较大;黑龙江省低温冷害低风险区主要成片分布于黑龙江省中部和西部地区,轻风险区主要分布于黑龙江省中西部地区、东部地区和南部地区,这些地区低温冷害发生风险较低。

Heilongjiang Province is an important commercial grain production base in China; it is also one of the high frequency regions with low temperature and cold damage in our nation. This research did the research of risk assessment and zoning of low temperature and cold damage in Heilongjiang province by using nature disaster risk index methods AHP and WCA through calculting the risk assessment index LCDRIi of low temperature and cold damage , under the elementary of calculating the dangerous, exposure, vulnerability. Some results were as followed： 1 ）the high risk regions of low temperature and cold damage mainly distribute in northwest region, namely, Mohe county and Tacheng county, this regions should be the most important low temperature and cold damamge defense regions in Heilongjiang Province; 2）the moderate risk regions sporadic distribute in most region of Heilongjiang province, this regions are much more vulnerable, so the risk level is higher, 3 ） the low risk regions distribute in the middle and west part of Heilongjiang Province, the light risk region distribute in the midwest, east and south part of Heilongjiang province, the risk level of low temperature and cold damage in this region is low.